As Donald Trump takes the reins of the United States presidency, global markets are rife with speculation about the potential impact of his administration’s economic policies. Among the issues under scrutiny is how shifts in U.S. interest rate policies might shape foreign institutional investment (FII) in India’s commercial real estate sector.
As published by Financial Express, India has become a favored destination for global investors in recent years, driven by steady economic growth, regulatory reforms, and competitive returns. However, a possible tightening of U.S. monetary policy under Trump’s fiscal agenda, marked by adjustments to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, raises questions about the flow of foreign capital to emerging markets like India.
Experts believe that while higher U.S. interest rates typically lead to portfolio adjustments among foreign investors in emerging markets, India’s commercial real estate market remains attractive. Grade A commercial properties in India currently offer stable rental yields of 7% to 8%, and the country’s GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2024.
The yield differential between U.S. Treasury bonds and Indian real estate continues to favor Indian investments, said Ashish Agarwal, co-founder of Enzyme Office Spaces.
“Historically, an increase in U.S. rates prompts investors to reassess their allocations in emerging markets,” Agarwal said. “However, India’s favorable yield differential sustains its appeal as a destination for foreign institutional investment.”
India’s expanding digital infrastructure and growing economy have created unique opportunities for investors, particularly in sectors like data centers and warehouses. LC Mittal, director of Motia Builders Group, noted that despite rising U.S. interest rates, foreign investor interest in Indian commercial real estate remains robust.
“Typically, U.S. rate hikes trigger capital outflows from emerging markets,” Mittal said. “However, India’s domestic consumption-driven economy, stable currency, and initiatives like GIFT City offer a compelling narrative for long-term investment in real estate.”
Realtors argue that institutional investors are increasingly taking a long-term view of India’s commercial real estate market. Factors like urban migration, a rapidly growing workforce, and digitalization are fueling demand for commercial properties, according to Aman Gupta, director of RPS Group.
“Rather than focusing solely on immediate yields, investors now see Indian real estate as a strategic long-term asset,” Gupta said. “The underlying growth trends often outweigh short-term fluctuations driven by U.S. monetary policies.”
India’s strong economic fundamentals, supported by its domestic consumption-driven model and demand for assets like data centers and warehouses, continue to bolster its status as an investment destination. While U.S. interest rate adjustments may influence short-term flows, India’s commercial real estate market stands out as a resilient and promising opportunity for global investors.
As the global financial landscape evolves, India’s ability to sustain investor interest amid tightening U.S. monetary policies highlights its position as a dynamic player in the commercial real estate sector.